This article is a little offbeat to the normal stuff we have written but I feel it’s an interesting topic and one that has been debated all over the forums all over summer. There has been a lot said about preseason players, who to get and who not to get and next week The white maggot and I will do an updated list but this article is for the real stats freaks. I love supercoach but I also run my own fantasy comp so I have a keen interest in stats in general not just supercoach scores. So I hope to write about this and if you enjoyed the article please say so and I will continue with more.
I have heard from every man and his dog how good Stevens, Murphy, Carrazzo and co are going to be this season because Judd is there. Frankly I’m sick of it and wanted to do some research to find out if this is the case. And of course this relates back to your Supercoach team as there are many eyes on these Carlton prizes.
So let me take you back to the West Coast Eagles days when it was Fletcher, Kerr, Cousins and Drew Banfield running around. A man named Chris Judd played round 1 in the WAFL and got something like 30-odd touches and 3 goals(Can anyone give me the real numbers?) From that day forward he was a permanent fixture in the lineup. Because he was Chris Judd(playing half forward flank mainly) in his first year and not the Juddernaught I have counted that as a year pre Judd. All stats below are possessions per game
|
Player
|
2002
(Pre Judd)
|
2003(PJ)
|
2004(Judd)
|
2005(Judd)
|
2006(Judd)
|
2007(Judd)
|
2007(PJ*)
|
|
Cousins
|
22.6
|
24.1
|
21.7
|
25.5
|
25.1
|
DNP
|
25
|
|
Kerr
|
19.5
|
19.2
|
19.8
|
20.9
|
22.9
|
24.6
|
29.3
|
|
Fletcher
|
20.9
|
18.7
|
25.6
|
23.6
|
22.6
|
22.3
|
19.1
|
|
Braun
|
16
|
13.5
|
18.7
|
20.6
|
20.16
|
22.3
|
20.7
|
|
Priddis
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP**
|
23.4
|
25.4
|
*From the Essendon game onwards when Judd played soley forward and not midfield. Or did not play at all
** Did play but not enough to qualify
Ok as you can see Kerr and Cousins didn’t get affected at all with Judd playing. Cousins did record his highest possession average but this had as much to do with him getting better as a player and West Coast playing higher possession football and shown by him averaged 25 disposals a game last year without Judd in the lineup. Kerr you could argue lifts his game without Judd in the lineup averaging 29.3 a game last year without Judd and 24 with Judd. His stats show a natural progression as improving as a player.
Fletcher and Braun are the interesting cases both showing a substantial increase with Judd in the midfield. Both suffered a drop even last year when Judd was out of the lineup. This makes sense though. Cousins and Kerr are elite onballers in their own right. They will get theirs regardless. Braun and Fletcher both get cheaper possessions and rely on being freed up by the stars getting tagged heavily. Priddis is hard to judge as we are only basing him on one season but I think the stats show he is a quality onballer more like Kerr and Cousins in the ball winning category
So how does this apply to Carlton? Let me start this by giving you a rundown of last seasons stats with Pagan as the coach and Ratten as the coach.
Carltons Posessions per game under Pagan – 367
Calrtons Posessions per game under Ratten – 413
Clearly there is an increase and even a woman would be able to tell you a full pre-season under Ratten this disposal number will only increase. Now here is the breakdown for some Carlton players...
|
Player
|
Under Pagan
|
Under Ratten
|
|
Carrazzo
|
22.6
|
30.3
|
|
Scotland
|
24
|
31.8
|
|
Murphy
|
17.7
|
18.5
|
|
Houlihan
|
21.1
|
17.8
|
|
Simpson
|
17.87
|
21
|
I find these numbers quite startling as well as backing up my thoughts. If Carrazzo and Scotland average more possessions this year it has more to do with Ratten’s coaching style than Judd being on the park. They are your Kerr and Cousins types along with Stevens who was not included as he didn’t play last year. We all agree though Stevens is a steal at his price in Supercoach. So Murphy, Houlihan and Simpson are in the running for the Braun type increase. I don’t rate these guys all that highly as players(Murphy included. Won’t be anything more than Good) and feel they are first in line to get cheap possessions due to the extra attention a Judd will draw. Simpson already had a good increase under Pagan.
In conclusion these numbers show getting on the Carlton midfielders is a smart move. They have an increased possessions playing style and the peripheral midfielders will yield the most benefit. But please don’t tell me Judd is going to help Carrazzo, Stevens or Scotland.
As stated earlier this is an experimental type article. Any advice, praise, criticism will be very welcome.
The Goat